1.IT Systems and Technology Sector: Turkey should focus primarily on technology and innovation from this point onwards since technology develops with the R&D process while this reflects on increasing production in the form of quality and productivity gains: Costs go down and quality goes up. This, in turn, can be translated into competitive power. When this occurs, global market share, profitability and capital accumulation increases. For this reason, the IT and technology sector will always be the sector of the future. In this, nanotechnology, genetics or biotechnology, new-generation nuclear technologies, hydrogen and fuel cell technologies will gain emphasis. IT systems and technology will, at the same time, become a field of international business activity.
2. Education: The gap of technical workers is, unfortunately, Turkey’s sore spot when new technologies and new industries are considered. In all fields from technical education to the transformation of those moving from agriculture, a changing economy, changing rules of competition (along with modes of production compatible with these), R&D and a qualified workforce are required. In parallel to the state, this sector will have to meet their requirements themselves in the future. They will either train their own workers or delegate this job to third parties, i.e., determine their standards and then order and buy the needed skills. Within this framework, the share of the private sector in education will quickly increase. New universities will open, the concept of university preparation will change and a new field called profession-oriented education will emerge.
3. Energy: The energy sector will grow in importance, both in Turkey and throughout the world. In accordance with the assumption that the global economy will grow 3-4 percent annually in the coming 10 years, the energy sector will be the main parameter that will define growth and wealth. According to some calculations, Turkey needs an investment of $130 billion to close its deficit in the energy sector. This means a large area of employment at the same time. Within the context of the strategies of attracting private sector investments in this sector aimed at reducing the energy-dependency of Turkey, the necessary regulatoryframework has been completed and the implementation stage is to be initiated. For this reason, when viewed in terms of needs, potential and investment climate, energy gains the title “sector of the future.” In fact, foreign capital flowing into the energy sector is about to surpass other sectors in 2009.
4. Automotive: In recent years, it has been the most competitive and rising sector in Turkey. It has become the leading sector in production, export and employment: In the last two years, this sector has started to earn foreign currency for Turkey as well. In fact, exports increased in 2007 by 33.8 percent in comparison to previous years, whereas the increase in imports was only 8.7 percent. Therefore, a foreign trade surplus of $3.5 billion was achieved by the end of the year. In achieving this surplus, the contribution of the domestic market in production is important, as well as the wave of investments and sub-industrial organization. Since Turkey has to maintain the momentum in the automotive sector, it is likely that investments will continue in the future too. Accordingly, the future of this sector, marked by high competition and innovation, promises to be bright. At this point, exports in the automotive sector receded due to decreasing demand in Europe, especially in 2008. In the end, 2008 seems like an exceptional year for the automotive sector.
5. Textiles: Textiles have been the most important industrial sector for Turkey since the late 1970s, in terms of production, employment and exports. However, the sector is undergoing a deep shock given that China has captured two-thirds of the world market due to its low productions costs. The volume of Turkey’s textile and apparel exports, meanwhile, are limited. However, our advantages such as quality, speed and the ability to meet customer demands, flexibility and proximity to EU markets balances the effect of China’s increasing strength. Turkey still retains its position of a global actor in these sectors; in this regard, work continues aimed at restructuring the sector towards the production of high-value added products. The Turkish government has put into practice a new incentive package directed at textiles and leather products. The process shall evolve with correct “support-discipline” policies. Entrepreneurs with the required capacity and initiative need to focus on the lower sections of the sector with high value-added potential. In this sense, we continue our search for value-added sectors of the future for a Turkey that is squeezed in the global competition environment. On this last issue, the reasons for these goals and our criteria were examined, while IT systems as well as the technology sector, education, energy, automotive and textile sectors have been portrayed. We continue from this point onwards in the appendix.
6. Telecommunications: The sector has not only gained a high momentum in recent years, but will also continue to grow in the next 15 years with new players as consumer trends develop and transform. The elimination of public monopolies and the fostering of the regulatory framework triggered growth in this sector. Here, not only big corporations, but also subcontractors thrive. Until now, it was GSM companies that were at the forefront. However, the next 15 years will paint a different picture as alternative telecom operators rise to the top. Those companies, meanwhile, that form robust investment plans will also thrive while this sector will
contribute significant investment and grow in volume.
7. Defense Technologies: The total value of the defense sector in the world reaches $1.3 trillion. Half of this figure belongs to the US alone. In this sector, defense technologies will be restructured as companies grow. In fact, some companies like Aselsan, Roketsan, Havelsan and Kale Savunma Sanayi have started to take shares in this market. Some other companies may now also become suppliers in this field. Owing to the recent investment initiative in this sector, Turkey now procures about 45 percent of its defense needs from the domestic market.
8. Retailing: In this sector we will see several company mergers and acquisitions. Mobility in the retail sector will gain a new dimension with newly opened shopping malls. Small players shall be active in the sector, along with big players. Since a qualified workforce is scarce in the retail sector, serious transfers will be seen and there will be a need for companies providing education in this sector. Small companies should choose to establish an effective supplier relationship with big companies, instead of complaining about them since being big requires the effective “outsourcing” and “delegation” of jobs. In this regard, the hypermarkets law that is about to be enacted should protect the consumer on one hand and the supplier on the other.
9. Electronics: Electronics will progress to great lengths in the retail world as companies with retail stores expand. Foreign electronic giants will continue to have an interest in Turkey and make investments while the sector will witness another wave of mergers and acquisitions. Mergers will be between both local brands and local and foreign brands. Because of global warming, issues such as environmental compatibility, savings and cost elements are likely to be pushed to the top of the agenda. Previous patterns will rapidly break up in the electronics sector where white appliances have the biggest share as new product ranges are introduced.
10. Transportation: Negligence on the part of state in the field of transportation, which is indispensable for economic development, is finally being rectified. For the first time, an integral approach is being adopted to carve out a balanced, rational and efficient transportation infrastructure where technical and economic parameters are conveniently used. Furthermore – and especially in the underdeveloped cargo transportation sector – there is an attempt to shift to railways, which are more efficient and safe. Currently, there is a boom in both air transportation and logistics. It seems that market-oriented reforms and tax incentives are behind this development. Domestic and international players are very active and are likely to continue being so Although the sector presently has a volume of $17 billion, it will eventually rise to $40 billion. In the meantime, however, warehousing will be the emerging star, local and international companies will merge and Turkey will attract the attention of foreign companies owing to its geographical position. This sector will take steps towards not only growth but also institutionalization. The problems of the sector will be overcome through institutionalization, and air-road-maritime transportation will move to a new dimension. Following the privatization of Turkish Airlines, competition will intensify. It is clear that railways will offer efficient, speedy and cheap service as the railway revolution will cause new movements in many fields including logistics.
11. Health: Turkey awaits very big investments in the health sector. The size of the sector is currently $25 billion though the target is $50 billion in the coming decade. This is primarily due to the fact that health is the foremost sectorthat will see investment. Due to an increasing income per capita and health consciousness, doctors per capita as well as health and medicine expenditures per capita shall increase. Likewise, the transfer of patients from nearby countries to Turkey will trigger new investments. Many countries will include health services administered in Turkey into their social security system as the UK has now done. New hospitals, facilities and clinics will be opened while non-occupational education will be on the agenda in the health sector. Acting on the thesis that “Employees in the health sector should at the same time be good communicators,” communication lessons will be considered. Turkey needs to sell services in order to close its current deficit. Turkey overcame this threshold in the tourism and contracted construction sectors. This sector also has a great potential. It should activate this potential in health in the near future in education for regional countries while delegate tourism should especially continue to be on Turkey’s agenda in the coming years.
12. Environment and Recycling: Measures aimed at eliminating the environmental devastation of industrialization or, at the very least, partially preventing it will cause the emergence of giant sectors. It is understood that $140 billion is needed as Turkey adopts EU environmental standards and fulfills the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. This point to a new business capacity in the future: There are leading companies in this field that possess advanced technologies. Those acting first in the domestic market will have the chance to cooperate and establish partnerships with these big companies.
13. Security: Security will be a growing sector in response to many threats, including terrorism and hacking. Information security, customer security, infrastructure and identity security, facility, street, building and personal security will thrive greatly. The security sector will further need educated personnel at all levels; many new companies will be established and the competition for goods and services will increase.
14. Consultation: Wealth increase as a result of the development of the manufacturing industries and high income level increases the importance of the services sector. Consultation, which is a branch of the services sector, will witness a rapid growth on both personal and institutional grounds. Since competitivepower in the global market is derived from employing the correct people, consultation services in human resources will gain emphasis. Turkey will need to spend a lot on inspection, measurement and (CE, Basel III, corporate management standard, etc.) certification fields. Those who prepare needed human resources and set them out in the consultation sector will have the chance to grow.
15. Agriculture: The gap between the world population and food resources seems to be growing each year. This puts food supply security in danger. Factors like global warming, the scarcity of water, the reduction in arable lands and the need for fertile lands push Turkey to the front in this field. When Turkey’s agriculture converges with the market (this is possible with contracted farming, and, to show this, leading farming techniques should be adopted with special incentives and guidance), real entrepreneurial interest will begin; through the help of incentives and regulatory reform their sizes will grow, conscious agricultural practices will develop and efficiency will increase.
